Forecast of icing zones using possibilities of hydrodynamic simulation for the atmospheric boundary layer

Marina A. Volkova; Alexander V. Starchenko; Irina V. Kuzhevskaya; Andrey A. Bart; Lubov I. Kizhner; Nadezhda K. Barashkova

doi:10.1117/12.2249019

29 November 2016 Forecast of icing zones using possibilities of hydrodynamic simulation for the atmospheric boundary layer

Marina A. Volkova, Alexander V. Starchenko, Irina V. Kuzhevskaya, Andrey A. Bart, Lubov I. Kizhner, Nadezhda K. Barashkova

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 10035, 22nd International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics; 1003567 (2016) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2249019
Event: XXII International Symposium Atmospheric and Ocean Optics. Atmospheric Physics, 2016, Tomsk, Russian Federation

Abstract

This paper presents the results of the analysis and forecast of meteorological conditions that promote icing of aircrafts in the atmospheric boundary layer. The forecasting results were obtained using the mesoscale meteorological model TSU-NM3. The Godske method, the NCEP method, and the statistical method of the Hydro-meteorological Centre of Russia were used as the criteria of aircraft icing probability during take-off or landing. The numeric forecast results were compared with pilot reports. The forecast accuracy rates, the probability of false detection, and the Peirce's skill score confirm the prospects of the proposed approach for the sphere of forecasting aircraft icing zones. On the basis of this technology, a regional method for forecasting aircraft icing can be developed.

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Marina A. Volkova, Alexander V. Starchenko, Irina V. Kuzhevskaya, Andrey A. Bart, Lubov I. Kizhner, and Nadezhda K. Barashkova "Forecast of icing zones using possibilities of hydrodynamic simulation for the atmospheric boundary layer", Proc. SPIE 10035, 22nd International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 1003567 (29 November 2016); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2249019

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