Mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a retarded differential equation

V. L. Derbov; S. I. Vinitsky; A. A. Gusev; F. M. Pen'kov; P. M. Krassovitskiy; G. Chuluunbaatar

doi:10.1117/12.2589136

4 May 2021 Mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a retarded differential equation

V. L. Derbov, S. I. Vinitsky, A. A. Gusev, F. M. Pen'kov, P. M. Krassovitskiy, G. Chuluunbaatar

Proceedings Volume 11847, Saratov Fall Meeting 2020: Computations and Data Analysis: from Molecular Processes to Brain Functions; 1184709 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2589136
Event: Saratov Fall Meeting 2020, 2020, Saratov, Russian Federation

Abstract

A mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equation with retarded time argument is proposed. The model uses two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by an individual virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy population member in a contact with an infected one per unit time. The parameters can be given functions of time, which is particularly important in describing multi-peak pandemic. The model is applicable to any community (country, city, etc.) and provides an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic inherent in the known SIR model and the relative simplicity for practical estimates. Examples of the model application are in qualitative agreement with the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.

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V. L. Derbov, S. I. Vinitsky, A. A. Gusev, F. M. Pen'kov, P. M. Krassovitskiy, and G. Chuluunbaatar "Mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a retarded differential equation", Proc. SPIE 11847, Saratov Fall Meeting 2020: Computations and Data Analysis: from Molecular Processes to Brain Functions, 1184709 (4 May 2021); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2589136

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