Forecasting method of China's total population based on intervention model

Yan Yao; Yingbing Fan; Jingjun Zhuang

doi:10.1117/12.2639373

17 May 2022 Forecasting method of China's total population based on intervention model

Yan Yao, Yingbing Fan, Jingjun Zhuang

Proceedings Volume 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022); 122593G (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2639373
Event: 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022), 2022, Kunming, China

Abstract

In order to slow down the speed of population decline, the Chinese government has opened up the two-child policy, collected and organized population data over the years, considered the impact of the two-child policy, selected the two-child policy as an intervention factor, and established an intervention-based ARMA(2,1) model , and finally use the intervention ARMA(2,1) model to predict that the total population at the end of 2021 will be 1,432,022,000.

Citation Download Citation

Yan Yao, Yingbing Fan, and Jingjun Zhuang "Forecasting method of China's total population based on intervention model", Proc. SPIE 12259, 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2022), 122593G (17 May 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2639373

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