Application of stochastic models in COVID-19

Yufeng Wang

doi:10.1117/12.2648111

27 September 2022 Application of stochastic models in COVID-19

Yufeng Wang

Proceedings Volume 12345, International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics, and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2022); 1234515 (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2648111
Event: 2022 International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics, and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2022), 2022, Qingdao, China

Abstract

This paper provides a method to assess the spread of an epidemic in a community using household data, first using a chain binomial model to elucidate the pattern of spread of the epidemic in households, fitting a series of chain binomial models to estimate escape probabilities and obtaining estimates of contact rates. The basic reproductive number was further estimated in combination with a deterministic compartment model SVEAI_QI_NR constructed based on an epidemiological dynamics approach including control measures to assess the spread of the epidemic in the community. The analysis reached the basic reproductive number of 5.2 in the community, with R₀<1 thus predicting the spread of the epidemic in the population during the period. Next, numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the effective reproductive number, an important parameter in the development trend of the epidemic, and to further evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies quarantine, antiviral drugs, and vaccines in controlling the epidemic. The simulation results show that isolation measures and vaccination play a very important role in controlling the spread of the epidemic when antiviral drugs are not sufficiently effective. Sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the effect of parameters on the cumulative increase infected individuals, and it was concluded that it is also crucial to improve the effectiveness of vaccines when taking vaccination measures in the prevention and control of outbreaks.

Citation Download Citation

Yufeng Wang "Application of stochastic models in COVID-19", Proc. SPIE 12345, International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics, and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2022), 1234515 (27 September 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2648111

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