Real option analysis in traffic network design with intelligent algorithm

Xinxin Yu; Shu Cui; Yu Wang; Yi Liu; Xing Yang; Di Wu; Heling Liu; Peng Zhang

doi:10.1117/12.2674516

23 May 2023 Real option analysis in traffic network design with intelligent algorithm

Xinxin Yu, Shu Cui, Yu Wang, Yi Liu, Xing Yang, Di Wu, Heling Liu, Peng Zhang

Proceedings Volume 12604, International Conference on Computer Graphics, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Processing (ICCAID 2022); 126042D (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2674516
Event: 2nd International Conference on Computer Graphics, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Processing (ICCAID 2022), 2022, Guangzhou, China

Abstract

In order to ensure the effective use of funds, the government must carry out reasonable traffic planning, in which traffic network design is one of the core contents of traffic planning. The traditional transportation planning has unreasonable factors due to deterministic assumptions. This paper assumes that the demand is a random variable, and then considers the time factor. With the cost recovery and link update as the constraint conditions, the real option is used to solve the problem of the flexibility value of the optimization strategy. The optimization model under uncertainty considering the time factor is given, and the real option is solved by using the LSM method. Genetic algorithm with Monte Carlo is used for network design. The example analysis shows that time factor has a significant impact on network construction decision-making, and real options can effectively describe the flexibility of network construction decision-making.

Citation Download Citation

Xinxin Yu, Shu Cui, Yu Wang, Yi Liu, Xing Yang, Di Wu, Heling Liu, and Peng Zhang "Real option analysis in traffic network design with intelligent algorithm", Proc. SPIE 12604, International Conference on Computer Graphics, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Processing (ICCAID 2022), 126042D (23 May 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2674516

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