Application of XGBoost and TrajGRU to improve the accuracy of ECMWF wind forecasts

Wei Zhang; Yueyue Jiang; Xiaojiang Song; Boyu Guoan; Renbo Pang

doi:10.1117/12.2680383

27 June 2023 Application of XGBoost and TrajGRU to improve the accuracy of ECMWF wind forecasts

Wei Zhang, Yueyue Jiang, Xiaojiang Song, Boyu Guoan, Renbo Pang

Proceedings Volume 12705, Fourteenth International Conference on Graphics and Image Processing (ICGIP 2022); 127053D (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2680383
Event: Fourteenth International Conference on Graphics and Image Processing (ICGIP 2022), 2022, Nanjing, China

Abstract

Sea surface wind is the main research object in the field of marine meteorology, and it is also one of the main reasons for marine disasters. Accurate sea surface wind forecast data is of great significance for marine disaster detection and early warning. The western North Pacific (WNP) has the greatest number of tropical cyclones of any sea in the world, with typhoons occurring virtually every month, so more accurate wind forecast data for this region is important for coastal residents and seafarers. This paper uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) fine grid forecast data and ERA-5 reanalysis data, and uses the TrajGRU network and the XGBoost algorithm to make rolling corrections to the ECMWF wind forecast in the future 0-120h. The experimental results show that after using the TrajGRU model to correct, the average absolute errors of wind speed and wind direction at all correction moments are reduced by about 10.3% and 4% respectively, which is better than the XGBoost method as a whole. In addition, the TrajGRU model can more accurately correct the regions with large errors in wind speed and wind direction, so that the ECMWF forecast data can be better applied to practice.

Citation Download Citation

Wei Zhang, Yueyue Jiang, Xiaojiang Song, Boyu Guoan, and Renbo Pang "Application of XGBoost and TrajGRU to improve the accuracy of ECMWF wind forecasts", Proc. SPIE 12705, Fourteenth International Conference on Graphics and Image Processing (ICGIP 2022), 127053D (27 June 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2680383

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