Comparing the logistic model and the SIR model by data analysis of COVID-19

Anwei Yan

doi:10.1117/12.2686131

28 July 2023 Comparing the logistic model and the SIR model by data analysis of COVID-19

Anwei Yan

Proceedings Volume 12756, 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023); 1275637 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2686131
Event: 2023 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023), 2023, Tangshan, China

Abstract

To investigate the mechanism of the disease spreading, mathematical models are introduced, the first model I tried out is the logistic model, and it is too simple to give a full explanation of the development of the pandemic and especially, it cannot predict when will the pandemic fade out. The second model I used is the famous SIR model, and by fitting data, the parameters of the model are acquired precisely, and it gives a better illustration of the ongoing progress in preventing the disease from spreading. Even though a better-fitting result is given, it is still a naive model for explaining the spreading process of the pandemic. By comparing these two models with the data in the real world, I draw some conclusions on the mechanism pandemic spreading process and identified the key elements in preventing it from further spreading.

Citation Download Citation

Anwei Yan "Comparing the logistic model and the SIR model by data analysis of COVID-19", Proc. SPIE 12756, 3rd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Intelligent Computing (CAMMIC 2023), 1275637 (28 July 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2686131

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