Effectiveness of randomized antimissile defense (RAMD) via sensing/firing performances of its constituents: analytic model

Aleksandr N. Safronov

doi:10.1117/12.210448

26 May 1995 Effectiveness of randomized antimissile defense (RAMD) via sensing/firing performances of its constituents: analytic model

Aleksandr N. Safronov

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 2468, Acquisition, Tracking, and Pointing IX; (1995) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.210448
Event: SPIE's 1995 Symposium on OE/Aerospace Sensing and Dual Use Photonics, 1995, Orlando, FL, United States

Abstract

The present paper brings consistent physical (technical) rationales and mathematical method enable one to perform concise analysis of an effectiveness of hypothetical multiple element Randomized Anti-Missile Defense (RAMD) describing the offensive asset(s) (target(s)) penetrativity in terms of coupled probabilistic functionals taken along arbitrary 3D trajectories of all targets (attack profile) and conditioned on a set of dominant technical parameters and spatio- temporal dynamical variables. The key feature here is that analysis is carried out not only in terms of varying numbers of targets and RAMD- elements, but it also takes into account the evolving spatio-temporal (i.e, 4D) distributions of both adversaries. Paper provides an exposition of what temporally balanced quasi-optimal target-assigning strategy is and how the upper limit to target penetrativity depends on both generalized technical parameters and integral overlapping of continual element-density distributions and properly 'broadened' pathway of a target. The developed model makes it possible to analyze both purely defensive situations and missile (nuclear) exchange scenarios. It is also applicable to RAMD effectiveness issues exploration in cases of a massive raid detterence (Advanced Global RAMD) and protection against limited strikes (Point/Area RAMD), including direct attack on RAMD itself, whatever their sources may be. The study give general recommendations on transfer from analysis to a synthesis of imitative 'game' model version touching on battle management fragments. Formalized model offers scope for extension coming from further specification of nodal technical and environmental characteristics. The outlined abstract math model of effectiveness falls within the hypothetic RAMD. In attempt to treat this intractable problem the author relied on general scientific principles. The views expressed are those of the author.

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Aleksandr N. Safronov "Effectiveness of randomized antimissile defense (RAMD) via sensing/firing performances of its constituents: analytic model", Proc. SPIE 2468, Acquisition, Tracking, and Pointing IX, (26 May 1995); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.210448

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KEYWORDS

Defense and security

Sensors

Defense systems

Mathematical modeling

Chemical elements

Stochastic processes

Calcium

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