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In this study we explore the ability of a novel machine learning approach, in conjunction with computer-extracted features describing prostate cancer morphology on pre-treatment MRI, to predict whether a patient will develop biochemical recurrence within ten years of radiation therapy. Biochemical recurrence, which is characterized by a rise in serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of at least 2 ng/mL above the nadir PSA, is associated with increased risk of metastasis and prostate cancer-related mortality. Currently, risk of biochemical recurrence is predicted by the Kattan nomogram, which incorporates several clinical factors to predict the probability of recurrence-free survival following radiation therapy (but has limited prediction accuracy). Semantic attributes on T2w MRI, such as the presence of extracapsular extension and seminal vesicle invasion and surrogate measure- ments of tumor size, have also been shown to be predictive of biochemical recurrence risk. While the correlation between biochemical recurrence and factors like tumor stage, Gleason grade, and extracapsular spread are well- documented, it is less clear how to predict biochemical recurrence in the absence of extracapsular spread and for small tumors fully contained in the capsule. Computer{extracted texture features, which quantitatively de- scribe tumor micro-architecture and morphology on MRI, have been shown to provide clues about a tumor's aggressiveness. However, while computer{extracted features have been employed for predicting cancer presence and grade, they have not been evaluated in the context of predicting risk of biochemical recurrence. This work seeks to evaluate the role of computer-extracted texture features in predicting risk of biochemical recurrence on a cohort of sixteen patients who underwent pre{treatment 1.5 Tesla (T) T2w MRI. We extract a combination of first-order statistical, gradient, co-occurrence, and Gabor wavelet features from T2w MRI. To identify which of these T2w MRI texture features are potential independent prognostic markers of PSA failure, we implement a partial least squares (PLS) method to embed the data in a low{dimensional space and then use the variable importance in projections (VIP) method to quantify the contributions of individual features to classification on the PLS embedding. In spite of the poor resolution of the 1.5 T MRI data, we are able to identify three Gabor wavelet features that, in conjunction with a logistic regression classifier, yield an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 for predicting the probability of biochemical recurrence following radiation therapy. In comparison to both the Kattan nomogram and semantic MRI attributes, the ability of these three computer-extracted features to predict biochemical recurrence risk is demonstrated.
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