Global velocity constrained cloud motion prediction for short-term solar forecasting

Yanjun Chen; Wei Li; Chongyang Zhang; Chuanping Hu

doi:10.1117/12.2239468

28 September 2016 Global velocity constrained cloud motion prediction for short-term solar forecasting

Yanjun Chen, Wei Li, Chongyang Zhang, Chuanping Hu

Proceedings Volume 9971, Applications of Digital Image Processing XXXIX; 99711U (2016) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2239468
Event: SPIE Optical Engineering + Applications, 2016, San Diego, California, United States

Abstract

Cloud motion is the primary reason for short-term solar power output fluctuation. In this work, a new cloud motion estimation algorithm using a global velocity constraint is proposed. Compared to the most used Particle Image Velocity (PIV) algorithm, which assumes the homogeneity of motion vectors, the proposed method can capture the accurate motion vector for each cloud block, including both the motional tendency and morphological changes. Specifically, global velocity derived from PIV is first calculated, and then fine-grained cloud motion estimation can be achieved by global velocity based cloud block researching and multi-scale cloud block matching. Experimental results show that the proposed global velocity constrained cloud motion prediction achieves comparable performance to the existing PIV and filtered PIV algorithms, especially in a short prediction horizon.

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Citation Download Citation

Yanjun Chen, Wei Li, Chongyang Zhang, and Chuanping Hu "Global velocity constrained cloud motion prediction for short-term solar forecasting", Proc. SPIE 9971, Applications of Digital Image Processing XXXIX, 99711U (28 September 2016); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2239468

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