KEYWORDS: Solar radiation, Data modeling, Solar energy, Solar radiation models, Statistical analysis, Error analysis, Renewable energy, Computer engineering
This paper discusses the probability distribution functions (PDF) of monthly insolation for four locations in Libya based on analysis of 30 years of historical weather data calculated by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in order to get appropriate probability distribution that best fits the data for a given month of the year. The frequency distributions used for solar irradiation data include Weibull, Normal, Lognormal and Gamma. The observed radiation at four locations in Libya on a monthly basis are analyzed to evaluate the suitability of the probability distribution functions based on the mean square errors. The analysis showed all the probability functions are appropriate for all the locations where weather conditions are relatively steady throughout the year. From the analysis it is concluded that Normal and Weibull distributions gives the best fit for observed solar radiation.
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